Oscars 2022 Final Predictions — ‘CODA’ Will Take Best Picture, Will Smith and Jessica Chastain Nabbing Their First Oscars
With the Oscars being held on Sunday, we try to predict which movie will win each category, based on our own judgment combined with Awards experts’ opinions.
The 94th edition of the Oscars has certainly been a source of multiple controversies. While the Academy started off making the right decisions, after they announced they would be going back to a single-host model (they later announced Amy Schumer, Regina King, and Wanda Sykes), they completely botched everything after that. They announced they would be cutting eight categories from the ABC telecast (though the network insisted on them cutting thirteen), and also announced they would be giving an audience-voted award during the telecast. Both moves signal desperation from the network to hike ratings. They have also hired Instagram influencers to make behind-the-scenes reels.
However, we want to ignore all of that and give the categories all the respect they deserve. While many of them are already locked, especially the more technical ones, there are a lot of interesting conversations to be had about some of the big ones, like Best Actress or even Best Picture. Here are our predictions:
Best Picture
This is of course the big prize, and also the big question. Judging from the results of the Guild Awards that have been revealed over the past month or so, there is one clear winner. CODA will take home the Best Picture of the year award, breaking several records along the way — if CODA wins, it will be the first feature film to ever win the top award without a nomination for Best Director and Best Editing. It will also be the first movie from a streaming service to win Best Picture.
Above all, winning Best Picture would send a fantastic message to the world. Not only is the film extraordinary, but it is also a very simple (in the best of ways) and enchanting story. A movie that sends a powerful and positive message in a moment in which the world needs it most. It is the ultimate underdog, a movie that not many people thought would make it into the awards conversation when it debuted at Sundance back in January 2021, or then in August on Apple TV+. The movie has made barely over $1 million at the worldwide box office and has survived throughout these months based only on word-of-mouth. As 2021 was wrapping up, Apple started to invest more money into their Awards race, and even at the beginning, not many people thought CODA would get much love. It was then nominated for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Supporting Actor. It now has a legitimate chance to win all three of them. It is especially outstanding to see GoldDerby’s experts’ opinions shift since nominations were announced, which you can see graphically here. It went from having the ninth-best chance at winning to now being the frontrunner.
If not CODA, the most likely option is The Power of the Dog. Jane Campion’s western is the movie with the largest amount of nominations, 12, and was the frontrunner for the majority of the post-nominations race. For better or worse, the movie has been part of many conversations, most of them controversial (and associated with Jane Campion’s comments), but that has kept the movie alive and with people checking it out. This would be a good example of “there’s no such thing as bad publicity”. If The Power of the Dog wins, it will also be the first streaming movie to grab the Best Picture award, and of course, Netflix’s first, after several attempts like ROMA, Marriage Story, Mank, or The Trial of the Chicago 7. This year they also have another horse in the race, Don’t Look Up, though that one is unlikely to get much love when the final awards are given.
Belfast was a frontrunner during the first few months of the race, prior to the nominations. While that movie has lost some steam, we should not sleep on it. For starters, it is the classic choice for the Academy — a biographical story of one of their favorite people, that is also coming from a traditional studio (Focus Features), instead of a streaming service. Wild horses in the race also include Dune and King Richard, both excellent movies that will receive a lot of love in other categories, and that could potentially sneak into this category too.
Belfast
CODA — PREDICTED WINNER
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Best Director
This is actually one of the few absolute locks of the night. It is actually interesting the fact that for the past number of years, the Best Director category is usually one of the few absolute locks, along with Best Animated Feature, and possibly one of the acting categories. So yes, this is definitely going to Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. She has been the frontrunner ever since nominations were announced, and her DGA win does nothing but solidify her chances. The GoldDerby graphic linked above has her so above everyone else it’s not even a competition.
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) — PREDICTED WINNER
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Best Actress
This has been a very interesting category since the beginning, even before the nominations were announced. For the majority of Awards experts, Kristen Stewart was the favorite to win the award for her performance in Spencer, going all the way back to November/December. Then, the SAG Awards Nominations happened in early January, and Stewart was left out, so the table was flipped, and everything was possible now. Stewart did eventually grab a nomination at the Oscars, but is not likely to win at all. While she may have been in contention during the first couple of weeks after the nominations were announced, the once-open-race quickly turned into a three-way contest between Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), and Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye).
This has been a very interesting category to watch. At one point, Kidman was considered the favorite by some experts, while others were insisting that this was a coin toss between Colman and Chastain. Colman was the favorite for many outlets for the longest time, but now Chastain has emerged as the clear frontrunner, and the SAG Award she won a few weeks ago has done nothing but increase her chances. The most amazing thing about this is that many predictions didn’t even have her being nominated earlier this year. This is Chastain’s third nomination, and while to some of us may not be her best work yet, it could be one of those times the Academy awards her for her extraordinary career. She also had a great year, between this and Scenes From a Marriage, a series for which she will most likely receive an Emmy nomination.
Throwing my two cents here, the Oscar should go to an actress who wasn’t even nominated — Emilia Jones for her unforgettable performance in CODA. Chastain should have been nominated, but I would have taken out Stewart and maybe even Penélope Cruz in favor of Rachel Zegler. Both performers have one disadvantage against the ones that were nominated — they lack experience and haven’t established themselves yet. In fact, this was Zegler’s first performance on screen, ever.
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — PREDICTED WINNER
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Best Actor
This is another lock for Sunday night. Will Smith will finally get his Academy Award. End of story. He really has been the clear favorite since the beginning, and while Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield may have given the performances of their careers, Smith’s extraordinary performance combined with her long-overdue Oscar gives him a large advantage over them.
That being said, if I were a voting member of the Academy, I would definitely vote for Andrew Garfield. His performance as Jonathan Larson in tick, tick…BOOM! is one for the ages, and the range of emotions he had to go through to pull it off is far wider than Smith’s. Plus, Garfield also had to sing and dance, and act while he was doing both. Also, while his resumé is definitely not as extensive as Smith’s, he should have been in contention eleven years ago for The Social Network, and he wasn’t even nominated.
At the same time, this does not mean Smith is not deserving of the Oscar. He very much is. His performance was unforgettable, and I will not argue with anyone voting for him — I still think the scene in which he confronts the social worker inside the house, after going out to practice with the girls, is the best-acted scene of the year. And the movie is a top 3 of the year for me, along with tick, tick…BOOM! and CODA. So yes, I will not be sad on Sunday when the award goes to Smith and not Garfield.
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … BOOM!)
Will Smith (King Richard) — PREDICTED WINNER
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Best Supporting Actress
Speaking of locks, here we have another one. Ariana DeBose is going home with an Oscar on Sunday, and she very much deserves it. She really has no competition, and her name has been the only one in the race long before the nominations were announced. She is incredible as Anita, and the picture with the statue after the ceremony will be even more incredible when you consider the fact that she turned down the role four times before casting director Cindy Tolan talked her into it.
This will be the third time two actors/actresses win an Oscar for playing the same role in two different movies. They are Marlon Brando/Robert De Niro for playing Vito Corleone in The Godfather and The Godfather: Part II respectively, and Heath Ledger/Joaquin Phoenix for playing the Joker in The Dark Knight and Joker, respectively. DeBose would also become the first queer woman of color to win an acting Oscar, and the second Latina woman to do it after Rita Moreno did it for playing the same role in 1961’s West Side Story.
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) — PREDICTED WINNER
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Best Supporting Actor
The Best Supporting Actor category is a two-horse race at the moment, between CODA‘s Troy Kotsur and The Power of the Dog‘s Kodi Smit-McPhee. If the Academy follows the tradition of giving this award very early in the ceremony, something they didn’t do last year, we could get an early glimpse of what the Best Picture envelop will contain. After all, while Smit-McPhee was the favorite for the longest time, Kotsur’s win at the SAG Awards solidified him as a clear candidate in this category. If he wins, CODA may very well establish itself as the next Best Picture winner, though it would still not be a done deal.
However, if Kotsur loses to the Power of the Dog rising star, then CODA can pretty much say bye-bye to a possible Best Picture win. I still think Kotsur will win, and we will have to wait until the very last moment to see who wins the big prize. The thought process here is that if Kotsur wins, it can still be a consolation prize from the Academy towards CODA for not giving them Best Picture, or it can be the beginning of a historic night for the deaf community. After all, the movie has only three nominations, so there isn’t a lot of room for the Academy to honor them if they are not to give the movie Best Picture.
Variety also brought up a very interesting detail. If either one of these guys wins, they will be second place in an Oscar’s statistic. If Kotsur wins, he will be the second deaf actor to be awarded an acting statue, after his co-star Marlee Matlin won it for Children of a Lesser God, back in 1986 when she was 21. That movie also starred recently-deceased William Hurt, who will probably receive one of the biggest applauses during the “In Memoriam”. If Smit-McPhee wins, he will be the second-youngest male actor to win an acting Oscar, after Timothy Hutton’s win for Ordinary People. Hutton was 18 at the time, Smit-McPhee is 25 now.
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA) — PREDICTED WINNER
Jessy Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J. K. Simmons (Being The Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Best Adapted Screenplay
This is another category that is very interesting, and one of the few open races we have going into Oscar night. The Lost Daughter was the clear favorite according to many experts for a long time, but The Power of the Dog was always in contention there. Now, because for a long time this movie was poised to win both Best Director and Best Picture, it was possible the Academy would not give it yet another award, and hand it over to a movie like The Lost Daughter, which will not receive many statues anyway.
But then, there was a very interesting development, as the Writers Guild of America gave CODA the award for Best Adapted Screenplay (the movie is a remake of a 2014 French film titled La Famille Bélier), a move that both put that movie as the clear favorite for Best Picture (combined with its win at the PGA Awards) and that also made a case for Siân Heder winning for her screenplay. Heder’s name being called on Sunday makes sense from every point of view. If CODA wins Best Picture, this would be the way the Academy would honor the mastermind behind the film, as she is not nominated for Best Director or Best Picture either (she is not a producer). If CODA does not win Best Picture, this could be the Academy giving her a consolation prize.
Siân Heder (CODA) — PREDICTED WINNER
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe (Drive My Car)
Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Best Original Screenplay
The Best Original Screenplay has been a two-horse race for a long time, between Licorice Pizza and Belfast. While the WGA Awards gave a surprise last week when they handed it out to Adam McKay for Don’t Look Up, I still think it will be a toss-up between the two films mentioned above. Personally, I think this is going to go to Belfast. Kenneth Branagh, who broke the record this year as the person with the largest amount of Oscar nominations in different categories (throughout his career he’s been nominated in seven different categories), will probably not be honored by the Academy in other categories, and since Belfast seems to be right up their alley, giving him Best Original Screenplay just makes sense.
We should not rule out Licorice Pizza, though. The movie is unlike anything Paul Thomas Anderson has made before, and since he’s also an Oscars darling, we should not overlook him. The movie has only three nominations, and doesn’t have a shot at Best Director or Best Picture, so the Academy could compensate him for that.
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) — PREDICTED WINNER
Adam McKay & David Sirota (Don’t Look Up)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Zach Baylin (King Richard)
Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt (The Worst Person in the World)
Best Editing
This is Joe Walker’s award to lose. No doubt. He arguably should have already won in 2017 for Arrival, and most definitely should have been nominated for Blade Runner 2049, so this will be the Academy righting their past wrongs. Not only that, but Dune was incredibly well-edited, and he will deserve the award. This also marks the beginning of a long streak of technical categories going to Dune, which will be the big winner of the night.
His only real competition is Pamela Martin for King Richard, who won the American Cinema Editors Award, but I still think this will go to Joe Walker. Martin could be in contention if we consider that some members of the Academy, in the technical categories, may go with whatever the respective guild ruled out. For instance, costume or production designers may not be able to say why one film deserves to win Best Editing over another, so they may go by the guild’s judgment. Even then, I still think this will go to Walker for Dune.
Hank Corwin (Don’t Look Up)
Joe Walker (Dune) — PREDICTED WINNER
Pamela Martin (King Richard)
Peter Sciberras (The Power of the Dog)
Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum (Tick, Tick … BOOM!)
Best Cinematography
This is Greig Fraser’s award to lose. No doubt. And no, you are not reading double, but there is really nothing else to say here. Following his win at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards and his extraordinary work on The Batman, he is the hottest DP of the moment. He has all the momentum, and will win in another locked category. Villeneuve does know how to pick his cinematographers — he’s worked with three of the absolute top DPs in town in his last four movies. Bradford Young shot Arrival, Roger Deakins shot Sicario Blade Runner 2049, arguably one of the most gorgeous movies ever made, and the one that finally gave him his long-overdue Oscar, and here, he worked with Greig Fraser, who is also owed an Oscar. Fraser will most likely be in contention next year again for The Batman.
Greig Fraser (Dune) — PREDICTED WINNER
Dan Lausten (Nightmare Alley)
Ari Wegner (The Power of the Dog)
Bruno Delbonnel (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Janusz Kaminski (West Side Story)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The technical categories will tell a rather dull story this Sunday, because most of them are already in the can. While I will argue until the end of times that cutting out any of the categories from the telecast is the most disrespectful thing the Academy could do (even more than the wild thing they did last year with the ordering of the categories), they actually chose a year in which there is really no suspense for most of them, and Makeup and Hairstyling is no exception.
This will go to Stephanie Ingram, Linda Dowds, and Justin Raleigh for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. I would even argue that these three are responsible for the Academy nominating and possibly crowning Jessica Chastain as Best Actress of the year. And that is no disrespect to anyone involved, it was a team effort, and the fact that their award will be given during the red carpet does not mean it is less important. Chastain already said that she be inside the theater when this award is announced, even if that means skipping the red carpet. Congratulations to the team.
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye — PREDICTED WINNER
House of Gucci
Best Sound
Another category cut out from the main show, another absolute lock. Dune‘s Mac Ruth, Mark A. Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett will be on stage thanking the Academy on Sunday, probably in front of an empty theater. But they will be there. The movie already received an award from the Sound Editors guild, and topped the Sound Mixers Awards.
Belfast
Dune — PREDICTED WINNER
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Best Score
This is an interesting one, actually. A month ago, I would have said this is an absolute lock for Hans Zimmer, he will win his second Oscar on Sunday. But given the very strong momentum Encanto has right now, I could also see this going to Disney’s animated film. I still think Zimmer is walking away with a statue in his hands, but I will not be shocked if the presenters call out Germaine Franco’s name.
Nicholas Britell (Don’t Look Up)
Hans Zimmer (Dune) — PREDICTED WINNER
Germaine Franco (Encanto)
Alberto Iglesias (Parallel Mothers)
Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog)
Best Original Song
This is another category in which Encanto‘s momentum could give the long-time favorite a last-minute upset. Billie Eilish’s No Time to Die was a favorite for this category ever since the song was released in early 2020, before the pandemic. So it’s been a long way for her and her brother, and just when they thought they would be going up on stage, Lin Manuel-Miranda comes along with some of the best songs he’s ever written. The Hamilton mastermind could be crowned with an EGOT on Sunday, and that is something the Academy may not overlook. However, I still think the award is going to No Time to Die, a truly magnificent song.
Be Alive
Dos Oruguitas
Down to Joy
No Time to Die — PREDICTED WINNER
Somehow You Do
Best Production Design
Dune. Nothing else to say. We’ve known that this movie has one of the most impressive production designs ever since we saw the first official pictures released by Vanity Fair in early 2020, and the momentum has not stopped for Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos. Unfortunately, they will have to thank the Dune team when the theater is still half-full.
Dune — PREDICTED WINNER
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Costume Design
A technical category that is not going to Dune! A breath of fresh air, actually, as Cruella‘s Jenny Beavan will be thanking the Academy on Sunday. This is her eleventh Oscar nomination and will be her third Oscar win (A Room with a View and Mad Max: Fury Road), so congratulations to her. A movie about costume design being awarded for Best Costume Design. Sounds about right.
Cruella — PREDICTED WINNER
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
West Side Story
Dune
Best Visual Effects
Another category that is going to Dune. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer will be walking on stage during the ceremony. While there are two Marvel movies nominated here, as well as a movie with layers upon layers of computer-generated images in Free Guy (something they managed to do with a budget of only $100M), the Academy tends to give this award to the most impressive work in terms of minimalism. It’s why in 2019 they gave it to First Man over the over-crowded Avengers: Infinity War, and they will be doing the same thing again this year.
Dune — PREDICTED WINNER
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Animated Feature
This is really a no-brainer. Disney’s Encanto will be crowned on Sunday as the Best Animated Film of the year, and deservedly so. While many will still argue The Mitchells vs. the Machines deserves this award over Encanto, and a month and a half ago the Academy may have ruled differently, the momentum behind the magical Encanto is not to be meddled with.
Encanto — PREDICTED WINNER
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Best International Feature
While this is clearly going to Drive My Car, the only film in this list that was also nominated for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay, the Japanese film has certainly lost a lot of momentum since the nominations were announced. In fact, if the nominations were announced today, I doubt Drive My Car would be in the Best Picture category. For that reason, while I still think they will be going with this film (mostly because many members of the Academy will not see any of the five films here and they will go with the easy pick), I would not be shocked if they announced The Worst Person in the World or even Flee, both of which are also nominated in other categories.
Drive My Car — PREDICTED WINNER
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
Best Documentary
Speaking of Flee, the animated documentary also has a shot in this category, which will be a toss-up between Summer of Soul and Flee. The former probably has the edge, though the latter’s subject matter, combined with its nominations in other categories, could give it the award. GoldDerby is going with Summer of Soul, and I agree, but we should not rule out a possible upset.
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul — PREDICTED WINNER
Writing with Fire
Best Shorts (Documentary, Live-Action, and Animated)
These are not my field of expertise, so I will trust the experts’ judgement. The overall agreement seems to be that Robin Robin will take Best Animated Short, The Queen of Basketball will win Best Documentary Short, and The Long Goodbye will win Best Live-Action short. All three categories were cut from the telecast.
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin — PREDICTED WINNER (Best Animated Short)
The Windshield Wiper
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye — PREDICTED WINNER (Best Live-Action Short)
On My Mind
Please Hold
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball — PREDICTED WINNER (Best Documentary Short)
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
The 94th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 27, starting at 5pm PST. We will be live-covering the event, both on MovieNewsNet.com and on Twitter.
Miguel Fernández is a Spanish student that has movies as his second passion in life. His favorite movie of all time is The Lord of the Rings, but he is also a huge Star Wars fan. However, fantasy movies are not his only cup of tea, as authors like Scorsese, Fincher, Kubrick or Hitchcock have been an obsession for him since he started to understand the language of filmmaking. He is that guy who will watch a black and white movie, just because it is in black and white.
