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Box Office Weekend – ‘Alita’ Exceeds Expectations on Slow President’s Day Weekend

by · February 19, 2019

Box Office
This weekend at the box office is a pretty quiet one, especially compared to last President’s Day when Black Panther reigned supreme, but it does offer the good news that Alita: Battle Angel desperately needed, as that movie outdid expectations.

 

Alita: Battle Angel took the #1 spot with a four-day weekend of $34.3M, leading to a total haul that measures up to a $43M+ so far. For frame of reference, the movie was expected to flop hard with a $50M domestic total as a best-case scenario, which would be a nightmarish compared a $170M budget. But the battle is far from over with this one – while Fox is stating that the break-even point on the film is $350M to $400M, other estimates point higher with $500M to $550M, a range that Alita could struggle to reach. If Alita is able to hold decently, then those kinds of totals may actually be plausible.

 

What’s really going to carry Alita: Battle Angel at the box office is the international market, and the last two markets in Asia will make or break the film. The film is tracking to do well in China, and brand recognition in Japan, where the Battle Angel Alita (or rather, Gunm, as it’s originally called) is going to do wonders for the movie. James Cameron’s movies are popular in those regions, and even if he only produced and wrote the film, that’s the kind of boon that this movie needs. If the movie ends up getting to that break-even point and Avatar 2 does well, then Cameron could probably use his clout to get a less-expensive sequel made with his new Disney overlords.

 

With Alita doing better than expected (although not necessarily in the sort of way that proved the skeptics wrong), the two other new releases this weekend came a bit short at the box office than expected. Going into the weekend, the $9M-budgeted Happy Death Day 2U was expected to give Alita a run for its money with a holiday weekend total of as much as $20M. Instead, people rallied toward the movie about a cyborg with unintentionally-creepy anime eyes and away from an anonymous slasher villain with an unintentionally-funny scary mask. Still, 2U is still successful with a $14M+ total after five days, although it likely indicates that the series is better off aiming for a late-year release window instead of an early-year release window. Isn’t it Romantic also targeted $20M over four days and came up a bit short with $16M+, but by the end of its six-day run, it’s slightly pacing ahead of Rebel Wilson’s last vehicle How to Be Single with $22M+. A so-so start for a $31M-budgeted anti-rom-com.

 

Now, onto the box office holdovers. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part held over better than expected in a way that brought the total up to nearly $63M, which is already ahead of The LEGO Ninjago Movie, which flopped. It seems like there’s a decent chance that The Second Part legs its way to profitability as long as it doesn’t get clobbered by How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World next weekend. On the subject of animated movies that have the involvement of Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse crossed $180M this week as award buzz continues to propel Sony Pictures Animation’s biggest domestic hit forward; by next weekend, it’ll be the animation studio’s fourth-biggest movie ever. Meanwhile, in the realm of superheroes in general, Aquaman managed to top Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice domestically and is now the second-highest-grossing movie in the DC Films shared universe, protecting its title as the #1 DC movie (shared universe or not) with over $1.1B.

 

The Top Twelve box office performances for the three-day weekend can be summarized as follows (bolded titles are new releases):

  1. Alita: Battle Angel (20th Century Fox) – $27.8M Weekend/$36.516M Total.
  2. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (Warner Bros./Warner Animation Group) – $21.215M Weekend/$62.69M Total; 37.8% Drop.
  3. Isn’t It Romantic (Warner Bros./New Line) – $14.21M Weekend/$20.455M Total.
  4. What Men Want (Paramount Pictures) – $10.92M Weekend/$36.15M Total; 40.1% Drop.
  5. Happy Death Day 2U (Universal Pictures/Blumhouse Productions) – $9.816M Weekend/$13.527M Total.
  6. Cold Pursuit (Lionsgate Films/Summit Entertainment) – $6M Weekend/$21.122M Total; 45.6% Drop.
  7. The Upside (STX Films) – $5.59M Weekend/$94.197M Total; 21.1% Drop.
  8. Glass (Universal Pictures/Blumhouse Productions) – $3.859M Weekend/$104.489M Total; 38.5% Drop.
  9. The Prodigy (Orion Pictures) – $3.15M Weekend/$11.015M Total; 46.2% Drop.
  10. Green Book (Universal Pictures) – $2.751M Weekend/$65.756M Total; 20.1% Drop.
  11. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures/Sony Pictures Animation) – $1.965M Weekend/$182.72M Total; 35.4% Drop.
  12. Aquaman (Warner Bros./DC Films) – $1.885M Weekend/$331.371M Total; 41.1% Drop.

The Top Twelve box office performances for the four-day weekend can be summarized as follows (bolded titles are new releases):

  1. Alita: Battle Angel (20th Century Fox) – $34.3M Weekend/$43.016M Total.
  2. The LEGO Movie 2 (Warner Bros./Warner Animation Group) – $27.325M Weekend/$68.8M Total; 19.9% Drop.
  3. Isn’t It Romantic (Warner Bros./New Line) – $16.64M Weekend/$22.885M Total.
  4. What Men Want (Paramount Pictures) – $12.37M Weekend/$37.6M Total; 32.2% Drop.
  5. Happy Death Day 2U (Universal Pictures/Blumhouse Productions) – $11.012M Weekend/$14.723M Total.
  6. Cold Pursuit (Lionsgate Films/Summit Entertainment) – $7M Weekend/$22.122M Total; 36.5% Drop.
  7. The Upside (STX Films) – $6.56M Weekend/$95.167M Total; 7.4% Drop.
  8. Glass (Universal Pictures/Blumhouse Productions) – $4.666M Weekend/$105.296M Total; 25.7% Drop.
  9. The Prodigy (Orion Pictures) – $3.648M Weekend/$11.513M Total; 37.7% Drop.
  10. Green Book (Universal Pictures) – $3.492M Weekend/$66.496M Total; 1.4% Rise.
  11. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures/Sony Pictures Animation) – $2.665M Weekend/$183.42M Total; 12.4% Drop.
  12. Aquaman (Warner Bros./DC Films) – $2.315M Weekend/$331.801M Total; 27.7% Drop.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Glass, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, and Alita: Battle Angel are now playing in theaters.

 

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